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In the past decade, we've witnessed dramatic cost reductions in renewables driven by technology improvements, which helped most of the world achieve grid-parity. Nannette Hechler- Fayd'herbe, Global Head of Investment Strategy and Research IWM Richard Kersley, Global Head of Research Product No sign of a property construction (new starts: -45% YoY) bottoming has emerged, while property sales (-28% YoY) have turned weak again. Key drivers are (a) cyclical demand recovery after three years of continuous volume decline in 2018-20, which is estimated to boost 2021 PV annual demand by ~6 pp. Domestic players continue to gain market shares in those sub-segments, while mid and large PLC markets remain under-penetrated by local brands. We agree that these technologies will outgrow the industry, but expect upside of FPC in the EV battery management system (BMS). Credit Suisse provides sales, trading, financing, prime services and market-making in global equities and equities-related securities, options, futures, risk management and hedging products. Given that since Dec-2021 the TCM subsector has outperformed many other China healthcare subsectors, we asked CQi to conduct a TCM survey to understand if there are any changes in consumer sentiment. China needs to drastically shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy to achieve this. A common strategy looks to exploit the A/H differential by favouring the "cheaper" line. Apple has brought in more suppliers in hardware keeping focus on share gainers or areas of better barriers. Despite the encouraging macro condition, APAC Oils have underperformed oil prices YTD and are still trading at below-historical multiples. President Biden announced US is rejoining the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and subsequent announcements from the White House clearly show the intent that US wishes to play a prominent role on this front. We expect "Dual Circulation" will focus on technology self-reliance, import/supply-chain substitution and domestic demand expansion. Internet and gaming platforms are positioned to evolve cloud gaming, social and business communities into a central platform role in the metaverse, while the metaverse should grace media companies with more time spent. Our bull case, based on accelerated growth of healthcare expenditure and health insurance funding, suggests that health insurance premium would amount to Rmb2.3 tn by 2025E, implying a 22% CAGR. The most comprehensive and up-to-date resource of its kind. Equity Research Associate salaries at Credit Suisse can range from 85,000 - 125,000 per year. Overall online cosmetics grew by 32% YoY in 2020, albeit slowing down from 49% YoY in 2019 on Tmall/Taobao. Compared with global peers, China internet names should see a more visible marginal improvement into re-opening. Yes our analysis shows Chinese consumer perception has evolved on foreign brands, backed up by CS's Emerging Consumer survey 2019. We suggest investors to be selective, monitor brand momentum, and stay with the industry leaders, while the market is waiting for the next catalyst. The month of April has seen net inflow of US$5.6 bn, ranking as the second-highest April flows to date, after the US$6.8 bn in April 2015. The Credit Suisse Research Institute analyzes fundamental trends by combining the knowledge of leading experts with the expertise of the worldwide network of Credit Suisse analysts. China Semiconductor Sector: A greener world powered by better power discreteIGBT and SiC MOSFET. We believe the unit sales were largely flat YoY in 3Q, while previously we expected the sales to see a small growth from the low base. While Hong Kong market volumes have been volatile, Southbound investor share of gross turnover remains strong at 32% (accelerating from 30% last month). E-commerce, food delivery, local services platforms and express delivery will be major beneficiaries from recovering online consumption. Jan saw weakness across brands, likely due to an early CNY: (1) traffic shifting to offline from online, (2) spending shifting to holiday-related categories (dining, apparel, F&B, among others), and (3) a lack of pent-up demand (front-loaded during 11.11). China Cement Sector - Recovery in sight, but slow. Previously firm Chinese currency, on the back of rapid economic recovery from Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020, robust supply chain, and yield spread over the US, has been facing significant challenges recently. We identify two long-term trends in the supply side: (1) volatility of China's raw milk price could reduce given closer association between upstream and downstream and the modernisation/consolidation of dairy farms; (2) self-sufficiency of China's dairy consumption may increase structurally given the demand shift to high-end products and emerging Chinese brands. Adopt a more dynamic approach to Value in on- and offshore China. Credit Suisse's New Research Hires. As a result, we revise up steel consumption. May has seen net buying reaccelerate, with US$3.9bn of net inflows mtd. Dr Li also flagged that large-scale off-label treatment might be a potential risk for some companies. China Cosmetics Sector: Ascent of C-beauty brands. Asia Semiconductor Sector: 2023 Outlook - Resetting to lower trough before driving into rebound. We expect China IGBT suppliers to expand share, especially in EV IGBT, backed by their improving technology offerings and also increasing China wafer capacities. We update our tracker of 49 listed China semiconductor companies' revenue and inventory to 1Q21. AxJ is exiting a badly disappointing decade with just 6.5% in compound annual total returns and a 4.7% CAGR in EPS, but we believe that the region is entering a new earnings super-cycle. We expect China passenger vehicle demand to increase 15% YoY in 2021, well above auto makers and industry associations' relatively conservative forecast of 7.5-9% YoY growth. There are 10 existing players in China. China Components Sector Shifting power from CCL to PCB. Stock specific risk was the main performance detractor. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: Southbound sentiment tracker: Record inflows in Jan with IPOs set to receive a boost from SB. (3) Ecosystem: We expect inter-connectivity to continue. China New Energy Hydrogen: How best to play the China hydrogen theme. It includes commitments in goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights, competition, etc., but in this note, we focus on goods. China Auto Parts Sector: Valuing the Tesla supply chain. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle : Fuelling the future of cargo mobility. For aluminium, due to improving pricing power, downstream aluminium manufacturers should enjoy much higher profitability amid potential newly added-in capacity to cap upstream alumina price hike. We believe laser cutting machine will grow faster than general metal cutting machine driven by laser penetration, but we believe in monetary terms, there is still pressure for laser to achieve positive growth. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: Southbound Sentiment Tracker: Outflow slows down amidst regulatory repositioning. Chinas top leaders have pledged to put economic growth back in focus, shifting away from Covid-19, and expansion of domestic consumption tops the list of priorities. We estimate China's FCEV sales to jump from 3k units in 2022 to 30k/80k units in 2025/2030 and China's hydrogen price to decline from ~Rmb60 per kg in 2022 to Rmb35/Rmb20 per kg in 2025/2030. We expect the fundamental backdrop for premium brands to remain strong in 2021, underpinned by continued demand recovery and tight demand-supply dynamics. China Healthcare and Insurance Sectors: Prime time is coming for commercial health insurance. Management tone for materials, travel & transportation and utilities sectors was relatively more optimistic, while property and consumer sectors turned more cautious. Monitoring sentiment and positioning of domestic funds is increasingly important to the China investment process. Global Industrials Sector 4Q21 China industrial robot market update from MIR Solid 4Q21 with 2022 growth estimate raised to 21%; localisation continues. Among the leaders, fabless and PCB/Substrates segments performed the best. Europe has been leading the path for a while now and in September 2020, China, for the first time, announced a fixed timeline to have CO2 emissions peak (2030) and achieve net-zero emissions (2060). NEV is an inevitable megatrend with rising electrification and information technology. China internet sector 2H outlook: focusing on quality growth to pave the way for upside. You will be directed to Credit Suisse PLUS to access the full report. Property new starts declined 46% YoY (July: -45% YoY) showing no improvement, though the property sales YoY narrowed. For accessing the metaverse, AR/VR along with upgrades to traditional PC/smartphones provide opportunities for hardware companies. China's economy is also facing mounting imported inflationary pressure, mainly on elevated global commodity prices. The State Council's recent five-year blueprint and the accelerating pace of announcements may suggest that the ongoing regulatory risks could be a medium-to-longer-term overhang for Chinese stocks broadly. Ten economies in Asia (the A-10: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan) were incrementally 50% of global GDP and 60% of exports and sent US$5tn in capital to the world (2010-19). This powered USD ahead of other global major currencies and added increasing pressure for CNY depreciation. The US clearly aspires to regain its prominent position in efforts towards handling climate change. The recovery may not be a V-shaped rebound as strong as what we had seen in 2020, in our view. We estimate PCB content will increase from Rmb750 in internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to Rmb1,500-2,000 in electric vehicle (EV), and the automotive PCB market will reach US$14.3bn at 9% CAGR in 2021-25E. This analysis highlights attractive opportunities for both companies. We continue to see strong momentum in 4Q20, evidenced in expansionary PMI, recovering retail sales and a positive surprise in exports, and confirmed by CQi's key indicators updates. Six key themes for 2022: (1) Growth: With peaking internet traffic, internet companies are increasingly looking inward for growth from operating efficiency enhancement and value creating opportunity leveraging their existing traffic. The combined economic figures for January and February 2021 reflect that China's economic recovery continues to gain momentum. This trend will have profound implications for listed stocks that are penetrating the wallets of Chinese boomers. Latest positioning of domestic funds. China Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Sector: Structural growth for long-distance heavy-loading transportation. Stocks slump as Credit Suisse selloff reignites bank worries. CS raises 2021/22 Brent forecast to US$66.5/US$68 (from US$59/US$63), as we now expect a quicker normalisation of global crude inventories by 2Q21 (vs 4Q21 previously). Near-term upgrades will be evolutionary but still improve the camera (image stabilisation, larger sensors, improved wide angle), display (faster refresh), processor (enabling AI, multimedia/graphics, and app development), and RF (more mmWave, Wifi 6E), and smaller notch. Asia Technology Strategy: Soft patch does not derail the 5G ramp. Credit Suisse on Thursday said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a glob Against this backdrop, in 2020 China's top leaders introduced two high-level strategies, the 'Dual Circulation' development model and the target of net-zero carbon emission by 2060, underscoring its focus on domestic energy security and energy self-dependency and greener development. China Market Strategy: Push and pull factors to accelerate home market listing. We revise our China HDT sales estimates to 0.97mn/1.08mn/1.10mn units (from 0.95mn/1.05mn/1.00mn) in 2022/23/24 with higher construction truck demand assumption on the central government's significant stimulus on infrastructure fixed asset investments (FAI). Credit Suisse isn't commenting, but sources say the cuts appeared to impact up to 25% of the equity research team. For the mature nodes, 8" raw wafer utilisation should be at 95% while 6" at 80-85%. The CS Global Energy Team forecasts US$70/bbl Brent for 2H21, but risk is skewed to the upside as we head into the summer peak demand season. As a result, our global team finds that most 5G launches so far have focused on high-volume data bundles and 5G handsets, rather than apps, limiting expected FY19- 24 revenue growth to just 1.3% p.a. The increasingly tense Sino-US backdrop is likely to drive further "secondary" listings in Hong Kong and more CDR/STAR board listings. China Communication Infrastructure Sector: Accelerating capex ramp in 2H21-1H22. China Mobile expects more than 200 mn units of 5G smartphones and 100 mn other smart connected device shipments in 2021. While we think there is a significant likelihood that these measures could be rolled back or watered down by a Biden administration, there is concern that anti-China measures are increasingly bi-partisan in nature. Better foot traffic and activities will boost sales in sportswear, cosmetics, household appliances, property, catering, baiju and condiment. Internet companies will negotiate to resolve issues including platform security and mutual benefits as they dismantle walled gardens. China Market Strategy: China back to work (week 2): Moderate recovery. We expect continued recovery in 2H21, but slower given the higher base. The average share price of automation names has out-performed the CSI300 index by 40% since late April, on what we believe is the expectation for a quick recovery after May. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered increasing disruption in the areas of commodities, leading to substantial pressure on already-high inflation. Amid a continued deceleration over the past few months, Southbound flows turned negative in November, with around US$600 mn of net outflows. The positive stance, as laid out in our China Hydrogen Connection Series last year, remains intact, and this policy announcement should kick-start a wave of capex spending in the hydrogen value chain, in our opinion. The push to higher energy density and stricter safety standards for Li-ion batteries (LiB) is driving tougher requirements for Li-ion battery separators (LiBS), as the industry moves towards ultra-thin separators with coating layers. Retail sales is likely to stage a meaningful recovery after a full reopen; infrastructure FAI is expected to moderate to mid-single-digit growth on a high base effect but remain a major force for economic growth; while export growth is likely to become a notable drag given weakening external demand. Gross turnover impact remains significant at around 11% of A-share turnover, while the Northbound free float stake is currently around 8%. It is hurting near-term economic activities, evidenced in the recent readings of NBS service PMI and manufacturing PMI. Dry Bulks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict, weaker China economic trends, and high commodity prices may drag underlying demand. We see consumers' interest in TCM could be increasing modestly. You are about to change the origin country from where you are visiting Credit-suisse.com. We expect Chinese brands to gain market share, particularly in the mass segment, as domestic brands are gaining popularity. Prime Reporting. China Cosmetics Sector: Online tracker suggests leading domestic Chinese brands are gaining share. We estimate LiBS thickness to drop to 5m by 2025 (70% lower vs 2017), with thinner LiBS triggering a need for more advanced coating technologies, raising coated-LiBS penetration to 75% by 2025 (2017: 20%) and bringing the addressable market to Rmb42bn. Given Chinese LiDAR suppliers' faster mass producing along with mature scanning technology, Chinese smart EV makers could solidify their leading position in high-level autonomy. Here we focus on China (CN). With solar currently at grid parity, we raise China solar demand to 103GW per year on average in 14th FYP (previous forecast: 67GW), meaningfully higher than 42GW per year in the 13th FYP. Declines in copper foil and epoxy resin prices accelerated in Jun/Jul, while glass fabric stayed low after the sharp cut in Feb. Material prices have returned to 1H20 levels, and we expect them to be manageable in the rest of this year. However, as growth in shipping volumes is broadly in line with trend, the tightness has two reasons, in our view. We also hear of intensified competition (in the new energy market in particular) that could lead to softer pricing in 2H22. YTD, Southbound investors have posted net inflow of US$37 bn, representing more than 40% of the full-year inflow in 2020. It is the first-tier LiBS players that lead the technological upgrades towards ultra-thin and coating separators, leading to a greater divergence between first- and second-tier LiBS players in terms of GP margin and RoE. The recovery is likely earlier than market had expected. China TMT Sector: How to invest in China's cloud: Migration within cloud. Further, we believe regulatory tightening is approaching an end. Due to the lower investment in R&D, fewer China unicorns are in AI/big data/robotics/software and healthcare. FYP slid 3.6% on: (1) shrinking agency force, (2) unrecovered long-term insurance demand, (3) likely competition with HMB. endobj Chinese banks that grant about 27% of their RMB loans to property will be under pressure. Despite near-term headwinds from COVID-19 resurgence, normalising consumer behaviour should lead to a strong rebound in out-of-home spend vs the fading at-home consumption, while some behaviour (e-tailing) might linger for longer. China Auto LiDAR industry: A promising sensor for vehicle autonomy. We foresee two important pivots for Asia in 2023. With the outbreak getting under control in China, stable economic growth is gaining higher priority on government agenda. China remains determined to develop a domestic semiconductor ecosystem, with an ultimate goal of being independent from the US, or with the least reliance on US technologies. IPv6 available. It was dominated by companies from the technology, consumer, industrials, healthcare, and property sectors. Credit Suisse on Thursday said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a . The markets have different underlying dynamics, sentiment and correlation profiles. China Market Strategy - 2H21 Outlook: Beyond normalisation and regulation. Credit Suisse Group AG began a make-or-break weekend after some rivals grew cautious in their dealings with the bank as regulators urged it to pursue a deal with Swiss rival UBS AG. Our analysis finds that commodities importers in general and especially Japan and Philippines are sensitive to input cost inflation. Sector implications. Our base-case assumption for such an approval is in 1H23. Better affordability helps poorer economies, as dense energy helps productivity. Hydrogen will play an important role in achieving this target, in our view. Second, growth in global freight is concentrated on a few routes (e.g., from East Asia to the US west coast), pressuring some ports. Various government departments also followed with announcements, including China-US audit talk progress, a delay of property tax pilot scheme and encouragement of increased equity investment from long-term institutional investors. We expect the long-held relationship between EPS revisions and stock performance will reassert itself in 2021 again. China Market Strategy: Road-mapping the return of Chinese ADRs. In particular, we outline five key themes: (a) improving access to care, (b) care management, (c) reducing fraud, waste and abuse, (d) optimising supply chain, and (e) driving employee/consumer engagement. Global Renewables Sector: Disruptive innovations for Net Zero. Telecom and network infrastructure companies can look forward to 20x higher data usage in 2032. In the current down cycle, the larger-than-previous decline in property sales and continued home price weakness indicate more signs of policy relaxation. It provides thought-provoking thematic analysis, differentiated trading ideas and coordinated global views. China Cosmetics Sector: CS monthly online tracker Jan-2023: Sentiment to gradually pick up. Assuming that domestic brands' penetration levels reaches ~60% in five years, comparable to the Korea/Japan markets, we expect domestic skincare/colour cosmetics brands to deliver 19.3%/33.7% CAGR. China tier 1 hyperscale capex rebounded by 14% YoY in 2020 and is expected to maintain 14%/13% YoY growth in 2021/22E, driven by China's migration to cloud, booming data traffic demand and digitalisation. China Insurance Sector: 1H21 results wrap and 2H21 outlook. 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